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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits surpassed expectations: Numerous financiers were fretted that as stocks plunged, this decline would also be reflected in their revenues report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, prior to the required financial objectives have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen before the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bear market rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to damage. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages roughly 10 various ETFs, providing direct exposure to various sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.